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Spring Housing Market Stalls as Buyers Take a Wait-and-See Approach
The spring housing market is off to a sluggish start. Pending home sales fell 0.8% month-over-month in February, while new listings declined 1.2% — an unusual pullback during what’s traditionally the hottest listing season of the year, according to Redfin’s latest market report.
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The numbers tell a story of a market stuck between two forces: buyers who can’t or won’t pay current prices at current rates, and sellers who aren’t willing to cut prices enough to close the gap.
Inventory Is Up, But Not Because of Fresh Listings
Total active inventory rose 5.6% year-over-year — the 10th consecutive month of annual increases. On the surface, that sounds like good news for buyers. More homes on the market should mean more choices and more negotiating power.
But dig into the data and the picture is less encouraging. The increase in inventory isn’t coming from a surge of new listings. It’s coming from homes that aren’t selling. Listings are sitting longer, and many are relists — properties that failed to sell in the fall and hit the market again with updated photos and sometimes lower prices.
New listings actually declined 1.2% compared to a month ago. In a normal spring market, new listings should be ramping up, not pulling back. The usual seasonal pattern shows a 5-8% increase from January to February. This year, the opposite happened.
Why Buyers Are Sitting Out
The short answer is affordability. The typical monthly mortgage payment on a median-priced home hit $2,480 in February (assuming 20% down and a 6.3% rate), according to Redfin. That’s 42% of the median household income — well above the 30% threshold that most financial advisors consider sustainable.
The longer answer involves psychology. After years of watching rates bounce between 6% and 7%, many buyers have adopted a wait-and-see approach. They’re not desperate. They’re not being priced out of rising markets. They’re just… waiting. Waiting for rates to drop. Waiting for prices to soften. Waiting for something to change.
And honestly, that strategy is starting to make sense in some markets. Price cuts are becoming more common. Bidding wars are increasingly rare outside of a handful of supply-constrained metros. The urgency that defined the 2021-2023 market has evaporated.
Sellers Are Adjusting — Slowly
Redfin’s data shows 22.8% of active listings had a price reduction in February, the highest share for any February on record. The median days on market stretched to 52 — up from 43 a year ago.
Some sellers are getting the message. Properties that are priced right — at or slightly below recent comparable sales — are still moving at a reasonable pace. The average well-priced home in a desirable neighborhood sells within 21 days.
But overpriced listings are languishing. And with mortgage rates spiking past 6.4% in March due to Middle East tensions, the pool of qualified buyers just got smaller. Sellers who haven’t adjusted their expectations may find themselves chasing the market down.
Where Buyers Have the Most Leverage
Not every market is stalling equally. Redfin identified several metros where buyers have gained significant negotiating power:
Florida: Jacksonville, Tampa, and Orlando all show inventory up 20%+ year-over-year with price cuts on more than 30% of listings. Insurance costs are driving some owners to sell, adding supply to an already softening market.
Texas: San Antonio and Austin continue to favor buyers, with months of supply above 5 months — a level that typically shifts pricing power from sellers to buyers.
Mountain West: Denver, Phoenix, and Las Vegas all have elevated inventory and rising days on market.
Meanwhile, markets in the Northeast (Boston, New York, Hartford) and upper Midwest (Minneapolis, Milwaukee) remain seller-friendly due to chronically low inventory. If you’re buying in these markets, the dynamics haven’t changed much. Our home loan guide covers how to prepare for competitive markets.
The Rental Alternative
One factor keeping some buyers on the sidelines: renting has actually gotten cheaper in many cities. National asking rents fell 0.4% year-over-year in February, according to Apartment List. In markets like Austin, Phoenix, and Atlanta, rents are down 3-5% from their 2024 peaks.
When renting is cheaper than owning (and it currently is in most major metros), the financial urgency to buy disappears. Buyers can afford to be patient, which is exactly what they’re doing.
The Bottom Line
Spring 2026 is shaping up as the weakest spring market since at least 2019. Buyers have more leverage than they’ve had in years — more inventory, more price cuts, more time to negotiate — but many are choosing not to use it, content to wait for better conditions.
If you’re one of the buyers who is ready to move, this is actually a decent environment. Less competition, more willing sellers, and more room to negotiate on price and closing costs. Get pre-approved, know your budget, and compare mortgage lenders to make sure you’re getting the best rate available. In a market where every dollar counts, the difference between the best and worst lender offer could be $50,000 over the life of your loan.
For homeowners thinking about selling, consider the HELOC rate forecast if tapping equity is an alternative to selling in a soft market. Sometimes staying put and borrowing against your home makes more financial sense than listing into a buyer’s market.